Tuesday, February 27, 2007
SYRIA, IRAN AND US TO ATTEND MEETING IN BAGHDAD
Published: February 27 2007 21:54 The US and Britain will sit down with officials from Syria and Iran and other western and regional powers in Baghdad next month, Iraq foreign ministry officials said on Tuesday.
Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, told Reuters he hoped the mid-March meeting would be “an ice-breaking attempt for maybe holding other meetings in the future. We want
Both US and British officials confirmed they would attend. Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state welcomed the “diplomatic initiative” from the government of Nouri al-Maliki.
“The violence occurring within the country has a decided impact on Iraq’s neighbours,” said Ms Rice “And Iraq’s neighbours, as well as the international community, have a clear role to play in supporting the Iraqi government’s efforts to promote peace and national reconciliation within the country”.
Ms Rice said the meeting would be at the “sub-ministerial” level – suggesting it will be attended by ambassadors – but a second gathering could be convened as early as April with ministers in attendance.
Saturday, February 24, 2007
THOUSANDS PROTEST IN LONDON WHILE SENATORS AND CITIZENS DISAGREE IN USA
On Friday relatives of soldiers killed in Iraq set up camp outside Downing Street to protest against the war.
Friday, February 23, 2007
AL QAIDA AND OTHER INSURGENTS VOW TO AVENGE RAPES
FIRST ARTICLE: February 22, 2007 CAIRO, Egypt: Three Iraqi insurgent groups, including al-Qaida in Iraq, have threatened to intensify their attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces to avenge the alleged rapes of women by security force members, according to Web statements purportedly posted by the organizations on Thursday.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/23/news/iraq.php
SECOND ARTICLE: February 23, 2007 BAGHDAD: Sunni insurgent groups, including Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, have called for revenge attacks after a second rape allegation against the Shiite-dominated Iraqi security forces.... He also said that 300 followers had volunteered for suicide missions within hours of hearing news of the alleged rape in Baghdad, which the woman said took place in a police garrison.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
ENDLESS WARS IF KURDISH AREAS PARTITIONED
WHY BRITISH TROOPS ARE DRAWING DOWN
By Kim Murphy, Times Staff Writer, LA TIMES, February 22, 2007
LONDON — Britain's decision to pull 1,600 troops out of Iraq by spring, touted by U.S. and British leaders as a turning point in Iraqi sovereignty, was widely seen Wednesday as a telling admission that the British military could no longer sustain simultaneous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq....
"Prime Minister Tony Blair's government has been pressed to add 800 troops to Afghanistan to halt a resurgent Taliban and a worrying escalation of drug trafficking, at the same time that it is beset by criticism for joining the United States in an unpopular invasion and prolonged war in Iraq.
Vice President Dick Cheney called the reduction "an affirmation of the fact that there are parts of Iraq where things are going pretty well," and White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said the U.S.-led coalition "remains intact" even though the roster of nations contributing troops, excluding the U.S., has fallen to 25 from 35. But the Pentagon, in its most recent quarterly report to Congress, listed Basra as one of five cities outside Baghdad where violence remained "significant," and said the region was one of only two "not ready for transition" to Iraqi authorities.
Once a promising beacon, Basra suffers from sectarian violence as well as Shiite militia clashes over oil smuggling. Ferocious street battles have broken out between rival Shiite Muslim groups in provincial capitals such as Samawah, Kut and Diwaniya in the last year.
"The president's escalation plan to send more U.S. troops to Iraq is out of step with the American people and our allies," Pelosi said in a statement. "Why are thousands of additional American troops being sent to Iraq at the same time that British troops are planning to leave?"
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
THE NEW IRAQI OIL LAW: DRAFT LEAKED
I spent the weekend translating this leaked copy of the Iraqi oil law with niki (thank you salam for sending me the link). Translating legal documents can be really hard!We just finished the translation, and you can download it by clicking here or herePlease feel free to widely distribute this document. It's important to start a stronger debate and to try to educate Iraqis and Americans about this catastrophic law that will facilitate the further looting of Iraqi oil, and will achieve nothing other than increasing the levels of violence and anger in Iraq. This law legalizes PSAs (production sharing agreements) in Iraq. Iraq will be the only country in the Middle East with such contracts privatising Iraqi oil and giving foreign companies crazy rates of profit that may reach to more than three fourth of the general revenue. Iraq and Iraqis need every Dinar that comes from oil sales. In addition to the financial aspects of this law, it can be considered the funding tool for splitting Iraq into three states. It undermines the central government and distributes oil revenues directly to the three regions, which sets the foundations for what Iraq's enemies are trying to achieve in terms of establishing three independent states. Privatizing Iraq's oil and splitting Iraq into three regions are just two negative features of this 29 pages law. I am translating some important analysis written by Iraqis and other Arabs, and am also working with British and U.S. experts to publish more analysis soon.
Monday, February 19, 2007
LEAVING IRAQ: APOCOLYPSE NOT by Richard Dreyfuss
Will the center hold?
Not only is the worst-case scenario far from a sure thing in the event of an American withdrawal, but there is also a best-case scenario. Precisely because the idea of all-out civil war and a regional blowup involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey is so horrifying, all the political forces inside and outside Iraq have many incentives not to go there....
Contrary to the conventional wisdom in Washington, Iraq is not a make-believe state cobbled together after World War I, but a nation united by the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, just as the Nile unites Egypt. Historically, the vast majority of Iraqis have not primarily identified themselves according to their sect, as Sunnis or Shiites. Of course, as the civil war escalates, more Iraqis are identifying by sect, and tensions are worsening. But it is not too late to resurrect some of the comity that once existed. The current war is not a conflict between all Sunnis and all Shiites, but a violent clash of extremist paramilitary armies. Most Iraqis do not support the extremists on either side. According to a poll conducted in June 2006 by the International Republican Institute, "seventy-eight per cent of Iraqis, including a majority of Shiites, opposed the division of Iraq along ethnic and sectarian lines."
In addition, the country's vast oil reserves, conceivably the world's largest, could help hold Iraq together. Iraqi politicians are currently devising a law that would ratify the central government's control of all of the country's oil wealth. Even the corruption that now cripples Iraq tethers Iraqi political leaders to the central government and to the idea of Iraq as a nation-state. "None of the big players really want civil war," says an Iraqi military official closely affiliated with Ahmad Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress. "None of them want to give up the regular flow of funds that they get now from corruption."
What most Iraqis do seem to want, according to numerous polls, is for American forces to leave. Even within the current, skewed Iraqi political system, a majority of Iraq's parliament supports a U.S. withdrawal. If we add to the mix the powerful Sunni-led resistance, including former Baathists, Sunni nationalists, and tribes, an overwhelming majority wants to end the occupation.
It is clear that there are many features of Iraq's current landscape that lend themselves to the eventual creation of a stable, postwar nation -- although rebuilding the country will take generations. It is, at this point, the best we can hope for. Like all best-case scenarios, it might or might not happen. But the very same can be said of the worst-case scenario -- a scenario that war hawks portray as a certainty and wave, like a bloody shirt, to scare decision-makers and members of Congress into supporting a failed strategy.
Al QAEDA CHIEFS ARE SEEN TO REGAIN POWER
WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 — ....Until recently, the Bush administration had described Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri as detached from their followers and cut off from operational control of Al Qaeda.
(However)...The United States has also identified several new Qaeda compounds in North Waziristan, including one that officials said might be training operatives for strikes against targets beyond Afghanistan....American officials say that the new intelligence is focused on Al Qaeda and points to the prospect that the terrorist network is gaining in strength despite more than five years of a sustained American-led campaign to weaken it.
.... recent intelligence describes the organization’s hierarchy as intact and strengthening. “The chain of command has been re-established,” said one American government official, who said that the Qaeda “leadership command and control is robust.”
Officials said that both American and foreign intelligence services had collected evidence leading them to conclude that at least one of the camps in Pakistan might be training operatives capable of striking Western targets. A particular concern is that the camps are frequented by British citizens of Pakistani descent who travel to Pakistan on British passports.
In the past, statements issued by Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri referred to events that were sometimes several weeks old, one official said, suggesting that the men had difficulty creating a secure means of distributing the tapes. Now, the statements are more current, at times referring to events that occurred days earlier.
American intelligence and counterterrorism officials said that most of the men receiving training in Pakistan had been carrying out attacks inside Afghanistan, but that Al Qaeda had also strengthened its ties to groups in Iraq that had sworn allegiance to Mr. bin Laden. They said dozens of seasoned fighters were moving between Pakistan and Iraq, apparently engaging in an “exchange of best practices” for attacking American forces.
Officials said that over the past year, Al Qaeda had also shown an increased international capability, citing as an example its alliance with the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an Algerian-based group that has carried out a series of attacks in recent months. Last fall, the Algerian group renamed itself Al Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb. Officials in Washington say they believe that the group is linked to a recent string of sophisticated car bombings and other attacks in Algeria, including a December attack on a bus carrying Halliburton contractors.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
RICE RESPONDS TO AMERICAN PUBLIC'S QUESTIONS ABOUT IRAQ WAR
In meetings with Iraq's fragile and often divided U.S.-backed government, Rice stressed the need for political and economic progress alongside security gains. Rice said she hopes the security sweep "may have now a little bit of a spur to some other things as well."
The U.S. has urged the government to move more quickly on benchmarks such as a national law governing the distribution of oil wealth. Iraqi leaders informed her that the oil deal was almost done, but Rice later told reporters she has heard that before. The secretary said she made clear to Iraqi officials that she hopes this time it is for real.
"The oil law is a proxy for something much larger," Rice said. "It's really important that they complete it, but it's also important that they have made progress."
NEWSWEEK SEEKS TO ANSWER QUD QUESTION
Today, the broader U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the Directorate of National Intelligence—which nominally oversees the agency—seems to have reached a consensus that the ordnance on display in the Baghdad slide show was made in Iran and transported over the border somehow by the Quds Force....But the documentation remains scant. And considerable doubts continue to surface about the intelligence presented at the Baghdad slide show, including the fact that the writing on the conventional weapons displayed was in English, not Farsi. U.N. Ambassador Zarif also says that the date markings are American-style—that is, the month comes first. “There is every reason to believe that this evidence is fabricated,” he said. U.S. officials say the weapons were apparently built for the international market....
Friday, February 16, 2007
THE POWER AND THE GLORY: A VIEW OF RUMSFELD BY ROGER MORRIS
He worked to shower on Saddam (in a manner as unnoticed as possible) an infamous flow of intelligence, financial credits, and sensitive materials and technology that would come to underpin Iraqi chemical and bacteriological warfare programs, leading to hideous gas attacks on Shia dissidents and Kurds as well as the Iranian forces. In general, Rumsfeld put his shoulder to the wheel to shore up the war-worn Ba'athist regime that had attacked Iran in 1980.
As Secretary of Defense to George Bush: As no other cabinet officer in history, he turned over crucial, self-sustaining functions of his department to privateers and private armies. He surrendered vital supply and commissariat services for the American military to profit-plundering contractors for whom U.S. forces were neither fellow warriors, nor even share-holders, but captive "customers" to be treated with the offhandedness afforded by guaranteed contracts. He ceded security and combat functions essential to the national mission to a corps of thousands of hired guns whose qualifications, standards of conduct and ultimate loyalty -- all integral to the safety and success of American forces -- were beyond effective governmental control or measure.
As no other cabinet officer in history, he squandered the integrity of his department and the unique, indispensable code of honor of its services. He joined, and often led, the rest of an intellectually degraded administration, heedless of Constitutional and human rights, in violating the very heart of their ostensibly conservative convictions. With the ready sanctioning, and then de facto cover-up of torture and abuse at Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, and the less noticed but equally gruesome prisons at Bagram Air Base and elsewhere in Afghanistan, he changed, for untold millions, the symbol of America and its once-proud military from freedom and the rule of law to the unforgettable prisoner's hood and shackles. Rumsfeld's impact would not vanish with terms of office or elections
....Weeks after Rumsfeld's departure, history -- the little ever really known or understood -- was already being waved off, forgotten. The past was too complicated and troublesome, too guilt-ridden and close to home, too filled with chilling consequences.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
MAHDI ARMY LEADERS ORDERED OUT OF IRAQ
Top members of Iraq's biggest Shiite militia, the Mahdi Army, have been ordered by their own leadership to leave Iraq, President Jalal Talabani said today. Mr Talabani said the Mahdi Army's leader, radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, wanted to see a new Baghdad security plan succeed and had given the go ahead for security forces to arrest any militia leaders who resist it. "I think that many senior officials of the Jaish al-Mahdi have received an order to leave Iraq to facilitate the mission of the Iraqi security forces to carry out their plan," Mr Talabani said.
"Moqtada al-Sadr is keen to stabilise the situation and see the security plan succeed in Iraq and he gave the green light to the government to arrest anyone breaking the law, and this is a positive attitude."
The Iraqi leader was speaking after a meeting with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, one day after the formal launch of an operation to drive sectarian militias out of Baghdad, amid reports that Sadr has left Iraq for Iran.
"I have no information about the whereabouts of Moqtada al-Sadr," Mr Talabani said.
Earlier, a top aide to Mr Maliki had confirmed a report from US military spokesman Major General William Caldwell that Sadr had left Iraq for Iran, a claim fiercely disputed by the firebrand cleric's supporters.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
WHITE HOUSE OPENS DOORS TO IRAQ REFUGEES
WASHINGTON (AP) -- More Iraqi refugees will be allowed into the United States.
The Bush administration will allow 7,000 Iraqi refugees into the country over the next year.
There have been only 463 allowed since the war began in March 2003.
Nearly 4 million Iraqis have fled their country during the war.
The U.S. is facing mounting international pressure to help more of them. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is asking for $60 million in aid from nations around the world. The U.S. will pledge $18 million to a relief and resettlement program.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
AL-MALIKI TIGHTENING SECURITY IN IRAQ
BAGHDAD, Feb 13 (KUNA) -- The Iraqi authorities decided Tuesday to impose night curfew from 8:00 pm to 6:00 am on individuals and vehicles in Baghdad operations area.The exact starting time of the curfew will be announced soon, Baghdad Military Commander General Abbod Kanbar quoted Iraqi Prime Minister and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces Nouri Al-Maliki as saying in a statement here Tuesday.... The act provides for tough punishment for criminal and terrorist acts such as murder, stealth, rape, abduction, ravage of public or private properties, bombing, and possession of military arms or explosives.Al-Maliki's decree reasserted respect for the sanctity of all places of worship. However, it did not rule out possibility of breaking into them by security forces when necessary. Meanwhile, the new security plan included a program ensuring safe return of Iraqi refugees and displaced persons and punishing occupants of their houses.Occupants of the houses of refugees and displaced persons have 15 days to evacuate the houses as from now and return them to their original owners, otherwise they will face tough penalties under the Iraqi Terrorism Act, Al-Maliki warned. Ad hoc committees will be set up soon to verify the ownership documents of houses and properties of refugees and displaced persons.In his decree, Al-Maliki urged the Iraqi military and police forces to take into account the human rights while implementing the new security plan and asked the Baghdad Operations Commander to brief him weekly on the new developments.
UNITED NATIONS POLICY FORUM RAISES ISSUE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW (DRAFT FORM)
War and Occupation in Iraq
UNITED NATIONS, Global Policy Forum, February 2007
Conclusion to Global Policy, Section entitled: Attacks on Cities report on Iraq
International law sets clear standards for the conduct of military operations. The Geneva Conventions prohibit attacks which do not clearly distinguish between military targets and civilians, or have a disproportionate impact on civilians. Coalition military operations have clearly violated these laws, with massive displacement of populations, indiscriminate killings of civilians, and large-scale destruction of habitation and urban infrastructure, including historic buildings and religious sites. Coalition forces have violated further provisions of the Conventions by deliberately targeting hospitals, stopping emergency medical care and blocking the delivery of humanitarian aid. In further violation of the prohibition of “siege tactics,” they have deprived civilians of food, water, electricity, medical supplies and vital services. Such practices have inflicted collective punishment on Iraqis. Taken together they represent a grave violation of international humanitarian law.
Full report in draft form: http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/occupation/report/index.htm
Monday, February 12, 2007
IRAN WAR REDO? National Security Director for Iranian and Persian Gulf Affairs Says Bush is seeking war.
Monday February 12, 2007
A former top Bush administration official for Persian Gulf affairs has said in an interview this morning on CNN that the US may be trying to spark a conflict with Iran.
Hillary Mann is the former National Security Council Director for Iranian and Persian Gulf Affairs. She warned in the interview that the recent flare up between Iran and the US over the former's alleged assistance to Shi'a militias results from a US desire to provoke conflict with the Iranians.
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2007/Frm._Bush_NSC_Dir._says_US_0212.html
Exclusive Commentary IRAN REDO?
By Christopher Dickey Newsweek
Updated: 3:45 p.m.
Feb. 12, 2007 - During America’s last and largely forgotten war with Iran, in 1987 and 1988, music meant a lot to those of us in the middle of the action. American warships had deployed in force to the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Ostensibly they were there to protect Kuwaiti oil tankers from marauding Iranian frigates and speedboats, but in fact they were backing Saddam Hussein in the seemingly endless Iran-Iraq war. “Somebody’s gonna hurt someone, before the night is through,” The Eagles had sung in “Heartache Tonight,” which became a kind of anthem to reporters covering the war. “Somebody’s gonna come undone, there’s nothin’ we can do.”
AND FROM THE MARCH ISSUE OF VANITY FAIR:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/03/whitehouse200703?printable=true¤tPage=all
....the vice president's daughter Elizabeth Cheney, who—as principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs and coordinator for broader Middle East and North Africa initiatives—plays a key role in the Bush administration's policy in the region. According to the Financial Times, Elizabeth Cheney, who has been on maternity leave since May, had supervised the State Department's Iran-Syria Operations Group, created last spring to plot a strategy to democratize those two "rogue" states. One of her responsibilities was to oversee a projected $85 million program to produce anti-Iran propaganda and support dissidents.
IRAQ HITS HOME IN ATLANTA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Through the weekend, the blogs talked of the Job-like speech in the House on Friday by freshman state Rep. Mike Glanton (D-Jonesboro), whose daughter Latisha is an Army sergeant in Iraq.
We have the audio for you here. Blog for Democracy was kind enough to provide a link to the video. The Glanton speech begins at about the 43rd minute. (Actually 43:45, and you can scroll it forward with your mouse...)
Glanton begins as a lonely figure at the rostrum. By the time he’s finished, half the chamber is gathered at his side.
IRAN REJECTS US ALLEGATIONS IT ARMED IRAQ INSURGENTS
"We shy away from any kind of conflict, any kind of bloodshed," Ahmadinejad told ABC television Monday.
The Iranian leader, whose country has been accused of stoking sectarian violence in Iraq, said instability there would hurt all countries in the region.
"That's why we're opposed to the presence of Americans," he said. "We tell them to leave the country and any other foreigner should leave the country and there should be none in Iraq, and you see, we will have peace in Iraq." US OFFICIALS IN BAGHDAD CLAIM OTHERWISE...
Skeptical congressional Democrats said the Bush administration should move cautiously before accusing Iran of fomenting a campaign of violence against U.S. troops in Iraq. Senate Intelligence Committee member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said “the administration is engaged in a drumbeat with Iran that is much like the drumbeat that they did with Iraq. We’re going to insist on accountability.”
On the Republican side, Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi said he did not think the United States was trying to make a case for attacking Iran. Lott said the U.S. should try to stop the flow of munitions through Iran to Iraq but that “you do that by interdiction ... you don’t do it by invasion.”
Sunday, February 11, 2007
The Mission Can't Be Accomplished -- It's Time for a New Strategy
First, the assumption that the United States could create a liberal, constitutional democracy in Iraq defies just about everything known by professional students of the topic. Of the more than 40 democracies created since World War II, fewer than 10 can be considered truly "constitutional" -- meaning that their domestic order is protected by a broadly accepted rule of law, and has survived for at least a generation. None is a country with Arabic and Muslim political cultures. None has deep sectarian and ethnic fissures like those in Iraq.
Strangely, American political scientists whose business it is to know these things have been irresponsibly quiet. In the lead-up to the March 2003 invasion, neoconservative agitators shouted insults at anyone who dared to mention the many findings of academic research on how democracies evolve. They also ignored our own struggles over two centuries to create the democracy Americans enjoy today. Somehow Iraqis are now expected to create a constitutional order in a country with no conditions favoring it.
This is not to say that Arabs cannot become liberal democrats. When they immigrate to the United States, many do so quickly. But it is to say that Arab countries, as well as a large majority of all countries, find creating a stable constitutional democracy beyond their capacities. Second, to expect any Iraqi leader who can hold his country together to be pro-American, or to share American goals, is to abandon common sense. It took the United States more than a century to get over its hostility toward British occupation. (In 1914, a majority of the public favored supporting Germany against Britain.) Every month of the U.S. occupation, polls have recorded Iraqis' rising animosity toward the United States. Even supporters of an American military presence say that it is acceptable temporarily and only to prevent either of the warring sides in Iraq from winning. Today the Iraqi government survives only because its senior members and their families live within the heavily guarded Green Zone, which houses the U.S. Embassy and military command. ...The first and most critical step is to recognize that fighting on now simply prolongs our losses and blocks the way to a new strategy. Getting out of Iraq is the pre-condition for creating new strategic options. Withdrawal will take away the conditions that allow our enemies in the region to enjoy our pain. It will awaken those European states reluctant to collaborate with us in Iraq and the region. read more by clicking headline William E. Odom, a retired Army lieutenant general, was head of Army intelligence and director of the National Security Agency under Ronald Reagan. He served on the National Security Council staff under Jimmy Carter. A West Point graduate with a PhD from Columbia, Odom teaches at Yale and is a fellow of the Hudson Institute.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
TARGET IRAN: US ABLE TO STRIKE IN THE SPRING
The present military build-up in the Gulf would allow the US to mount an attack by the spring. But the sources said that if there was an attack, it was more likely next year, just before Mr Bush leaves office.
Neo-conservatives, particularly at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, are urging Mr Bush to open a new front against Iran. So too is the vice-president, Dick Cheney. The state department and the Pentagon are opposed, as are Democratic congressmen and the overwhelming majority of Republicans. The sources said Mr Bush had not yet made a decision. The Bush administration insists the military build-up is not offensive but aimed at containing Iran and forcing it to make diplomatic concessions. The aim is to persuade Tehran to curb its suspect nuclear weapons programme and abandon ambitions for regional expansion. Robert Gates, the new US defence secretary, said yesterday: "I don't know how many times the president, secretary [of state Condoleezza] Rice and I have had to repeat that we have no intention of attacking Iran." But Vincent Cannistraro, a Washington-based intelligence analyst, shared the sources' assessment that Pentagon planning was well under way. "Planning is going on, in spite of public disavowals by Gates. Targets have been selected. For a bombing campaign against nuclear sites, it is quite advanced. The military assets to carry this out are being put in place." He added: "We are planning for war. It is incredibly dangerous."
THE POLITICS OF IRAN INTELLIGENCE: NATIONAL JOURNAL
Amid the continued political fallout over the faulty intelligence case for going to war in Iraq, the Bush administration is newly cautious about the specific intelligence it plans to present to the public to back up its claims that Iran is fighting a kind of proxy war with the United States in Iraq.
At least twice in the past month, the White House has delayed a PowerPoint presentation initially prepared by the military to detail evidence of suspected Iranian materiel and financial support for militants in Iraq. The presentation was to have been made at a press conference in Baghdad in the first week of February. Officials have set no new date, but they say it could be any day.
Even as U.S. officials in Baghdad were ready to make the case, administration principals in Washington who were charged with vetting the PowerPoint dossier bowed to pressure from the intelligence community and ordered that it be scrubbed again. The officials understand that the press will scrutinize the information intensely, that the intelligence "dots" that the administration has assembled about Iran in Iraq can be connected multiple ways, and that the public is wary of any possible intervention in Iran. "The truth is, quite frankly, we thought the briefing overstated, and we sent it back to get it narrowed and focused on the facts," National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley was quoted as saying by the Los Angeles Times on February 2.
A White House official who declined to be named told National Journal that the presentation was sent "back into the interagency process ... with all the usual agencies involved, both in Washington and Baghdad." ....
REPORTER FINDS INCOMPETENCE PLAGUES IRAQI FORCES
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Many of the Iraqi forces whom the U.S. is counting on to defeat Sunni Muslim insurgents, disarm Shiite Muslim gunmen and assume responsibility for keeping the peace have been infiltrated by sectarian militias and are plagued by incompetence and corruption.
Two weeks with American units that patrolled with Iraqi forces in west and east Baghdad found that Iraqi officers sold new uniforms meant for their troops, and that their soldiers wore plastic shower sandals while manning checkpoints, abused prisoners and solicited bribes to free suspects they'd captured.
Friday, February 9, 2007
Council on Foreign Relations Recommends Withdrawal
ROBERT FISK: IRAQI INSURGENTS OFFER PEACE FOR CONCESSIONS
The present terms would be impossible for any US administration to meet - (and)...it clearly represents only the views of Sunni Muslim fighters. Shia militias are nowhere mentioned. The demands include the cancellation of the entire Iraqi constitution - almost certainly because the document, in effect, awards oil-bearing areas of Iraq to Shia and Kurds, but not to the minority Sunni community. Yet the Sunnis remain Washington's principal enemies in the Iraqi war.
There will, the group says, be no negotiations with Mr Maliki's government because they consider it "complicit in the slaughter of Iraqis by militias, the security apparatus and death squads". But they do call for the unity of Iraq and say they "do not recognise the divisions among the Iraqi people".
What is unclear, of course, is the degree to which al-Jeelani's statement represents the collective ideas of the Sunni insurgents. And, ominously, no mention is made of al-Qa'ida.
SHOOTING THE MESSENGER: COST OF MEDICAL CARE FOR INJURED VETERANS
The Iraq conflict is unusual.... in that so many soldiers are being injured out of combat. There are all kinds of reasons for that, he said, but it’s a reality.
“We think it’s reprehensible that the Pentagon would call Linda Bilmes and bitch her out over the phone and put pressure on the school” about this, Robinson said. “I want to ask the Department of Defense, ‘Why aren’t you doing reports on why there are so many injured and on their care?’ It’s ridiculous to be ignoring all of those [non-combat] injuries. Why are they attacking this research?”
Thursday, February 8, 2007
BAGHDAD CRACKDOWN & THE DECIDER QUESTIONED
In parts of the city only a few shops were open, a reminder of the fear people have of more car and suicide bombings, which have hit Baghdad with regularity in recent weeks.
Lines outside gas stations stretched for more than a mile, as the city is experiencing its worst fuel crisis in months. Supplies are very low because refining capacity is down, a problem compounded by hoarding....
The operation is the third attempt by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his U.S. backers to pacify Baghdad since the Shiite leader came to office in May. The operation, which will involve about 90,000 Iraqi and American troops, is seen by many as a last chance to curb Iraq's sectarian war.
Bush power trip jeopardizes terror war: BY DEWAYNE WICKHAM, Gannett News
....Whatever the reason, Bush is on a power trip that seems to be hurtling him - and this nation - toward a political abyss. Last week, in the face of growing congressional opposition to his plan to send an additional 21,500 troops to Iraq, the president said he wouldn't be deterred by such criticism. "I'm the decision-maker," he snapped.
Bush too often responds like a dictator when his actions are challenged. That kind of behavior doesn't sit well with many Democrats - and some Republicans.
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070207/EDIT02/702070304/1090/EDIT
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
COOKING THE INTELLIGENCE?: PENTAGON INSPECTOR GENERAL TO RELEASE INVESTIGATION FRIDAY
Douglas Feith: Nobody in my office ever said there was an operational relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda. It's just not correct. I mean, words matter.
Wallace: But it turns out he did make that case in a memo he sent to the Senate Intelligence Committee in October of '03. The Weekly Standard, who saw the Feith memo, described it this way: 'Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein had an operational relationship from the early 1990s to 2003 that involved training in explosives and weapons of mass destruction, logistical support for terrorist attacks, al Qaeda training camps and safe haven in Iraq, and Iraqi financial support for al Qaeda.' Later, Vice President Cheney said the article was the best source of information on the Iraq-al Qaeda connection.
IRAQ WAR LEGACY: VIOLENT CIVILIAN ATTACKS, KIDNAPPINGS AND DEATH SQUADS
It was - from one blast. But in November 2006 more than 200 people died and another 400 were injured in an attack in Baghdad's Sadr City. It was a single incident, but it involved several bombs and mortars.
In other words, through a common journalistic device - first, worst, biggest - there is a risk of obscuring the wider truth of the level of violence.
In the weeks before the Sadriya attack, there had been several other massive car bombings each one of which killed more than 70 people , as well as the usual harvest of death squad victims dumped around the city....
Monday, February 5, 2007
OFFICERS WITH PHD'S ADVISING WAR EFFORT
...As the U.S.-designed campaign to bring security to Baghdad unfolds, Petraeus's chief economic adviser, Col. Michael J. Meese, will coordinate security and reconstruction efforts, trying to ensure that "build" follows the "clear" and "hold" phases of action. Meese also holds a PhD from Princeton, where he studied how the Army historically handled budget cuts. ....his chief adviser on counterinsurgency operations an outspoken officer in the Australian Army. Lt. Col. David Kilcullen holds a PhD in anthropology, for which he studied Islamic extremism in Indonesia. ....Among Kilcullen's dictums: "Rank is nothing: talent is everything" -- a subversive thought in an organization as hierarchical as the U.S. military....Beyond.... senior officers is a larger ring of advisers whose views already are shaping planning for the coming operation in Baghdad.
A Different Arena
Many military insiders are skeptical that the extra brainpower ultimately will make much difference, or that lessons learned by McMaster in Tall Afar or Petraeus in Mosul will be easily applied in the far larger arena of Baghdad.
..., experts agree that the basic problem in Iraq is political, not military, and that although a military campaign can create a breathing space for politicians, it cannot by itself reverse the dynamic driving Iraqis to fight a civil war.
ASSAD: I CAN HELP--WHAT'S THE BENEFIT OF DEMOCRACY IF YOU'RE DEAD?
Sawyer: Because Americans would say they voted, they now have the beginning of democracy there.
Assad: What's the benefit of democracy if you're dead? Now after the war, more than 700,000 Iraqis were killed. So is it democracy for killing or for having better standard of life? For starvation? For insecurity? For all this? So democracy is a tool to have a better life.
Sawyer: What would happen? Then talks take place.
Assad: Yeah.
Sawyer: You, Iran, the neighboring countries?
Assad: Yeah.
Sawyer: So the influence of the neighboring countries can create a cease-fire?
We have this good relations with all the parties, including the parties participating in this government and the other who oppose this political process. So that's how we can help. As Syria. Maybe other countries as well.
Sunday, February 4, 2007
VIEWS OF IRAN'S INVOLVEMENT: US VS. IRAQI
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY PLAYS DOWN IRAN'S ROLE IN IRAQ: 2/4/07 ....The U.S. government's data, however, show that Sunni insurgents, not Shiite militias supported by Iran, have been responsible for most American combat deaths...."The vast majority of Americans who are being killed are still being killed by IEDs [improvised explosive devices] set by Sunnis," said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA and White House expert on Persian Gulf affairs. "The administration is between a rock and a hard place here," said a senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking anonymously because the intelligence on Iran is highly classified. "On one hand, they have to convince people here and abroad that this time they're telling the truth and they've got the goods, which won't be easy. And a lot of our friends in the region, like the Saudis and the Israelis and the Lebanese, are nervous and want us to get tough with Iran." ....Intelligence officials said they have strong evidence of Iranian support for Iraqi Shiite militias, especially the Mahdi Army. The question is how great a role they're playing in the conflict....weapons include shaped-charge explosives capable of breaching advanced armor, armor-piercing rocket-propelled grenades and Katyusha rockets, the senior U.S. intelligence official said....Iran's motives remain murky, he said.
"Are the Iranians mucking around in Iraq? You bet," he said. "Do they want to make sure they've got a government in Baghdad that's simpatico instead of another war? Yep. But are they fighting a secret war against the Americans in Iraq? We have no evidence of that." http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003555705_usiran04.html
IRAQI ARMY FINDS MORTARS BURIED IN SAND
Saturday, February 3, 2007
2/2/07 RELEASE: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE:
Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism....even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this estimate. The challenges confronting Iraqis are daunting, and multiple factors are driving the current trajectory of the country’s security and political evolution.
Decades of subordination to Sunni political, social, and economic domination have made the Shia deeply insecure about their hold on power. This insecurity leads the Shia to mistrust U.S. efforts to reconcile Iraqi sects and reinforces their unwillingness to engage with the Sunnis on a variety of issues, including adjusting the structure of Iraq’s federal system, reining in Shia militias, and easing de-Baathification.
Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state’s Arab character and increase Sunni repression.
The absence of unifying leaders among the Arab Sunni or Shia with the capacity to speak for or exert control over their confessional groups limits prospects for reconciliation. The Kurds remain willing to participate in Iraqi state-building but reluctant to surrender any of the gains in autonomy they have achieved.
The Kurds are moving systematically to increase their control of Kirkuk to guarantee annexation of all or most of the city and province into the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) after the constitutionally mandated referendum scheduled to occur no later than 31 December 2007. Arab groups in Kirkuk continue to resist violently what they see as Kurdish encroachment.
Despite real improvements, the Iraqi Security Forces (I.S.F.) — particularly the Iraqi police — will be hard pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to operate independently against Shia militias with success. Sectarian divisions erode the dependability of many units, many are hampered by personnel and equipment shortfalls, and a number of Iraqi units have refused to serve outside of the areas where they were recruited.
Extremists — most notably the Sunni jihadist group Al Qaeda in Iraq (A.Q.I.) and Shia oppositionist Jaysh al-Mahdi (J.A.M.) — continue to act as very effective accelerators for what has become a self-sustaining inter-sectarian struggle between Shia and Sunnis.
Significant population displacement, both within Iraq and the movement of Iraqis into neighboring countries, indicates the hardening of ethno-sectarian divisions, diminishes Iraq’s professional and entrepreneurial classes, and strains the capacities of the countries to which they have relocated. The U.N. estimates over a million Iraqis are now in Syria and Jordan.
The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, Al Qaeda and Sunni insurgent attacks on coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.
Friday, February 2, 2007
One Child in Iraq (UN) & Refugee Crisis (per The Independent)
Thursday, February 1, 2007
WHO'S ON FIRST?
"Half of them are JAM. They'll wave at us during the day and shoot at us during the night," said 1st Lt. Dan Quinn, a platoon leader in the Army's 1st Infantry Division, using the initials of the militia's Arabic name, Jaish al Mahdi. "People (in America) think it's bad, but that we control the city. That's not the way it is. They control it, and they let us drive around. It's hostile territory." Al-Sadr's success in infiltrating Iraqi security forces says much about the continued inability of American commanders in Iraq to counter the classic insurgent tactic of using popular support to trump superior military firepower. Lacking attack helicopters and other sophisticated weapons, al-Sadr's men have expanded their empire with borrowed trucks and free lunches for militiamen
KISSINGER, ALBRIGHT WEIGH IN ON IRAQ
WASHINGTON - Former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and Madeleine Albright urged President Bush on Wednesday ...to develop a comprehensive strategy for the area. They called for wide-ranging talks with Iraq's neighbors, including Iran and Syria, and increased autonomy for clashing Iraqi groups. The administration has brushed aside the proposal to engage Syria and Iran.
Kissinger...said...."I think the focus has been on the surge," he testified. "My focus is the other way around: to explain the surge in terms of the strategy to which we should go."...a strategy that would permit large regional autonomy for the various Iraqi groups and a stronger Iraqi army. And, he said, "All of this has to be in the context of a willingness to talk to Iran" because of its power, even though he did not think Iran "would help us in Iraq as such." "What we cannot accept is an Iran that seeks to dominate the region," Kissinger said.
Albright, who was secretary of state under President Clinton, ...told the committee, "We are viewed in the Middle East as a colonial power and our motives are suspect." Like Kissinger, she supported participation by Iran and Syria along with other nations in talks designed to keep Iraq from slipping into chaos. "One gains by communicating with countries with which one disagrees," Albright said. Kissinger said the U.S. should always be ready to negotiate with governments with which it disagrees.
The Iraq Study Group, a private panel headed by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former Rep. Lee Hamilton, D-Ind., recommended in December that the administration engage in talks with Iran and Syria.