DIRE EXIT SCENERIOS DEBUNKED?

...there is no reason to automatically assume, many experts said, that the situation will improve if U.S. troops stay -- or get worse if they leave.

"When you go through the analysis -- even though I am prepared to concede that there can be dark scenarios coming out of a withdrawal from Iraq -- it's not at all clear to me that they are any worse than staying," said Rand Beers, a former national security official through the last four administrations, including the current Bush administration.

and from The American Prospect: http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewPrint&articleId=12313

The question is no longer whether Iraq will become a beacon of democracy in transforming the entire Middle East. That was a chimera. But the question is also not whether al-Qaeda will seize power. That is not likely even in central Iraq, and through the strategy we follow on the way out, we can minimize the chances that al-Qaeda will permanently entrench itself there.